Trading Setups

Episodic Pivot


  • Contraction the days before the EP (Vol/ATR declining)
  • Catalyst (Earnings, FDA approve ..) → Game Changer Event
  • High trading volume (> 9M shares)
  • Trade in direction of responsible Index → not neccessarily, leaders lead the group, group leads the market
  • Weinstein Criteria → Stage 2 stock
  • Min. Break Out 4%, max. Break Out 40% (extreme Gap → watch out for reversals)
  • Wait for new higher highs on the 5min (confirmation)
  • Market Cap > 300m (no Micro Caps)
    • Explanation
    • Does the story change? Yes → expect continuation; No → expect MR back to trend
    • Respect Stage 1 - 4 Analyses with 30W VWMA Stage Analysis



  • Wait for new higher highs on the 5min (confirmation)


  • StopLoss → below low of the day or Support
  • TakeProfit → none, trail SL
  • TakeProfit → Price starts moving sideways and you find a better setup

Follow (Longer) Momentum


  1. Price above 200 SMA, 50 SMA above 200 SMA
  2. No Microcaps, min 300k average Volume, with Insider Ownership
  3. Prefer: PEG < 3, Insider + Instutions buying
  4. The longer the timeframe, the more important fundamental analyses becomes
  5. The longer the timeframe, the less trades; only once per timeframe
  6. Hold max 15 stocks at the same time



  1. On start of new timeframe, sell stocks that arent any more in the Top X
  2. Example: top 15 stocks, sorted by Annual Return, revise every month
  3. Example: top 3 stocks, sorted by Monthly Return, revise every week

Catalystic Shake Out


  • Often followed by a momentum in the long direction (Catalyst shake out)
  • Probably a short attack on a stock
    1. Shorting a stock in a way that Stop Orders are executed
    2. Creates Volume
    3. Volume is then be bought by to accumulate the stock
  • Often combined with imporant Levels (SMA50, SMA200)


Momentum Burst


  • 5 to 10 day consolidation, low volatility where buyer and seller at equilibrium
  • Range expansion preceded by a negative day indicates start of a fresh swing (shake out light)
  • Range expansion after a series of narrow range day
  • Buy on first day of the swing as soon as range expansion is signalled
    • Second day driven by residual buyers, newsletter followers or slow reactors.
    • Third day novice notice the move and get excited, professionals sell and third day buyers becomes bag holders.


S&P 500 Inclusions

  • Significant positive abnormal returns on the announcement day
  • Although later on positive returns are observed, they are not statistically significant.
  • On the 4th week after the announcement significant negative abnormal returns are exhibited, suggesting that there has been an overreaction or that demand from the institutional market


  • High Tight Flag

Bag Holder (Short Setup)


  1. Stock that is continuously going down
  2. Wait for a spike / pivot up due to some event
  3. Bag holders will be more than happy to finally sell their assets, with less loss → Stock will proceed to go down

Risk / Position Size